It's not about timelines, it's about capabilities. My tentative prediction is that the sole remaining major bottleneck/gap between current systems and dangerous powerful agent AGIs is 'agency skills.' So, skills relevant to being an agent, i.e. ability to autonomously work towards ambitious goals in diverse challenging environments over long periods. I don't know how many years it's going to take to get to human-level in agency skills, but I fear that corrigibility problems won't be severe whilst AIs are still subhuman at agency skills, whereas they will be severe precisely when AIs start getting really agentic. Thus, whether AGI is reached next year or in 2030, we'll face the problem of corrigibility breakdowns only really happening right around the time when it's too late or almost too late.