My very rough take on RSI is that AIs being released today were probably developed with AI assistance that contributed around a 5-20% speedup to the rate of progress vs no AI assistance, +/3 months on timing, and that the degree of speedup is probably increasing reasonably quickly in that in 12 months time it will be more like 30-200%.
So I think it's mildly interesting that the ECI frontier trend doesn't yet indicate any bend. I don't think AI enabled speedup necessarily causes a speedup in the ECI trend, but I think more likely than not it should. One reason ECI may not be the best instrument here is that ECI may be slow to "rotate" into the proper basis for frontier capability (i.e. it's biased towards capabilities that used to be important over ones that are the most important today). Probably we should only expect to detect changes at the upper end of my estimate from the few datapoints we have, but I am at least watching this and related indices closely for evidence of acceleration.