The ToC is standard and straightforward: the animal movement regularly makes strategic decisions over which organisations to fund, which campaigns to push, and which emerging issues to prioritise. These decisions can be higher value with a well-calibrated, public forecast to draw on (particularly in the absence of substantial research and evidence_.
Questions were crowdsourced from people in strategic positions across the advocacy community, with one filter: could a forecast on this actually change a key decision? The 16 questions (more coming) cover corporate welfare commitments, alternative protein regulation, and emerging frontiers like octopus farming and how animal welfare might (or might not) show up in frontier AI systems.
Metaculus here. Thank you to Aditi B. and @david reinstein for focusing attention on these questions. I've embedded a few below that I find especially interesting and would love to see more forecasts on:
Aditya.B is leading this effort, and drafted most of the text below.
We've just launched the Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus, a partnership with Metaculus, The Unjournal and Sentient Futures.
The ToC is standard and straightforward: the animal movement regularly makes strategic decisions over which organisations to fund, which campaigns to push, and which emerging issues to prioritise. These decisions can be higher value with a well-calibrated, public forecast to draw on (particularly in the absence of substantial research and evidence_.
Questions were crowdsourced from people in strategic positions across the advocacy community, with one filter: could a forecast on this actually change a key decision? The 16 questions (more coming) cover corporate welfare commitments, alternative protein regulation, and emerging frontiers like octopus farming and how animal welfare might (or might not) show up in frontier AI systems.
A $3,400 prize pool is on offer.