Data about the new coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) from Denmark

by Oskar Mathiasen1 min read2nd Jan 20213 comments



I noted on Zvi's recent post (found here ) that Denmark was one of few other nations to do large amounts of Covid  strain sequencing.
This is a followup with the newly released data.
The data seems consistent with a doubling time around a week.

Data found here 

Here is a graph over cases which where tested on specific days, note that days where there where 0 tests sequenced as B.1.1.7 have been skipped
(colors corespond to different areas in Denmark)


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Update with new numbers.

In the period from 28-12 to 02-01 we get the following numbers

Positive tests: 14408
sequenced tests: 1261 (8.8%)
B.1.1.7 cases: 36 (2.9%)

Which is slightly slower than a doubleing time of a week (a 1.8 multiplier per week with naive extension (i believe the naive method is likely to underestimate))

Here is the updated graph

on this one days with 0 cases are not excluded

Worth noting that there doesnt seem to be any significant differences in the ages of people who have the new and old variant 


This follow-up work is also interesting:

They use an agent-based model to extrapolate that the UK variant will reach 50% prevalence in Denmark around 40-50 days after Jan 1. 

The model does not account for control loop effects or vaccinations. It says that absent these and with the usual assumptions, Denmark would see a strong peak after 90 days where around 1.4% of the country would be infected at the same time, followed by herd-immunity decline to current infection levels after 180 days.