As previously observed, extraordinary successes tend to be considered extraordinaryprecisely because it is hard to teach (relative to the then-current level of understanding and systematization). On the other hand, famous failures are much more likely to contain lessons on what to avoid next time.
Books about epic screwups have constituted some of my more enlightening reading. Do you have any such books to recommend?
Please break up multiple recommendations into multiple comments, one book per comment, so they can be voted on and discussed separately. And please say at least a little about the book's subject and what sort of lesson you learned from it.
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, by Richards Heuer
Summary:
Intelligence analysts cope with the need to aggregate heterogeneous data of wildly varying quality into coherent decision-making frameworks. This book catalogues historical failures made in this sort of analytical context and suggests how to overcome common traps.
Lessons:
This is a great guide from a sharp practitioner. Analysts wanting to draw conclusions from data should generate a wide range of hypotheses and use falsification to narrow down to a smaller range of options. Such an approach avoids the trap of establishing a single theory early in the analytical process and only paying attention to evidence that confirms it.
Note:
I spoke with the author a few months ago, and he said a dramatically revised edition was in the works. I'm drawing heavily on this book for two chapters of my forthcoming book, Head First Data Analysis (O'Reilly Media).
Followup to: Unteachable Excellence
As previously observed, extraordinary successes tend to be considered extraordinary precisely because it is hard to teach (relative to the then-current level of understanding and systematization). On the other hand, famous failures are much more likely to contain lessons on what to avoid next time.
Books about epic screwups have constituted some of my more enlightening reading. Do you have any such books to recommend?
Please break up multiple recommendations into multiple comments, one book per comment, so they can be voted on and discussed separately. And please say at least a little about the book's subject and what sort of lesson you learned from it.