romeostevensit's Shortform

You can't straightforwardly multiply uncertainty from different domains to propagate uncertainty through a model. Point estimates of differently shaped distributions can mean very different things i.e. the difference between the mean of a normal, bimodal, and fat tailed distribution. This gets worse when there are potential sign flips in various terms as we try to build a causal model out of the underlying distributions.

2romeostevensit2mo(I guess this is why guesstimate exists)
1Pattern2moHow does guesstimate help?

guesstimate propagates full distributions for you

romeostevensit's Shortform

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Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.