Cole Wyeth's Shortform

Cole Wyeth

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I guess Dwarkesh believes ~everything I do about LLMs and still think we probably get AGI by 2032:

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025

@ryan_greenblatt made a claim that continual learning/online training can already be done, but that right now it's not super-high returns and requires annoying logistical/practical work to be done, and right now AI issues are elsewhere like sample efficiency and robust self-verification.

That would explain the likelihood of getting AGI by the 2030s being pretty high:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/#pEBbFmMm9bvmgotyZ

Are you claiming that RL fine-tuning doesn't change weights? This is wrong.
Maybe instead you're saying "no one ongoingly does

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1Roman Malov1y

What are your timelines?

2Cole Wyeth1y

My distribution is pretty wide, but I think probably not before 2040.