Maybe this question was asked before, but I couldn't really find it. So I hope it might generate some interesting discussion, if it was asked before and the topic is consumed, let me know and I'll delete it.
There's obviously an "opinion" that everyone holds about how themselves and other people should act in the epidemic, but I'm a strong proponent of the stance:
You can't trust thoughts, thoughts are the PR team of your actions, actions are the things that signify one's true beliefs
Which I'd wager most people here agree with to a large extent.
To pin point two very relevant trends regrading travel, flights and hotel revenue:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/206515/us-hotel-revenue-per-available-room-by-month/ (PNG https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/205000/206515-blank-754.png | first data point is for January, min y value 70 max 140)
It seems to me that in Europe and the US I can observe a tiny drop in February (maybe even incidental?) followed by a sharp one starting in March and ending in May-June, when an increase starts being obvious.
As someone that travels a lot this is surprisingly of aligned with my own behavior:
- I didn't care much about the epidemic until early March, when the spread was obvious (mid March)
- I settled down and was basically on lockdown (contact only with close friends and delivery guys) until early May
- I started going to public places (climbing gym, eating on terraces, swimming) early-mid May, by the time mid July was around I started traveling again (but somewhat more cautious than I'd usually be, using a respirator, doing weekly antibody tests and changing places less)
- Now that it's October I've pretty much decided to go back to my old schedule with the same measure I took before (antibody tests on a weekly basis, PPP2 no-valve respirator, stick to mid-sized cities and stay in one place for longer to avoid too many flights)
In my mind this is correlated to my usual biases and a "sane" processing of information:
- Until early March, my assumption was that, as with most other potential pandemics, nothing will happen. And if it will, chance I'll be among the first to fall would be small.
- March to May, once I realized the risk is very pertinent based on real data, rather than just models, I settled down, waiting to see how bad the whole thing is.
- Since the end of May I've cautiously started dipping my feet back into "normal" life as evidence seemed to pop up supporting an intuition that I'm not at risk for short or long term symptoms (being very young and having no comorbidities). I was avoiding the riskiest of things (e.g. planes, inside dining, parties) initially, but as most evidence pilled up I started not to care about anything besides the possibility of infecting others.
Personally I thought this was mainly "rational" behavior, but seeing how closely I am matched by global behavior I'm actually really curios if I wasn't just monkeying those around me (potentially unlikely, since I don't follow news and don't have many friends that travel a lot) or how much my behavior was simply guided by restrictions alone and rationalized my behavior around those restrictions as a "rational choice".
So I'm really curios, how has your behavior in terms of infection-risk activities evolved since late December / early January ? What trends would you point to as being significant to this topic ?
Not sure this is directed at me or just a question for poetic reasons, but I'm going to answer it anyway:
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- The "bradykinin hypothesis" is the only one that has a reasonable model of long term damage, basically attributing it to ACE2 expression in tissues where it would be nor