I don't see how a global pause will ever come into effect. This seems to me to be the key sticking point:
1. The USA decides it wants to pause.
The Chinese say: "Sure, we are benevolent responsible leaders of the global system and agree that superintelligent ASI is an existential risk. So for this Pause. Are you willing to let us catch up entirely to your level of AI capabilities? Or instead, do you come down to our levels of capability" [1]
I find it very hard to imagine that the USA is willing to forego it's technological lead given realist great power competition concerns.
I also do not think any coercive measures such as greater export controls for China, or threats of military intervention will change China's mind on this and potentially do the opposite. They will instead see this as an act of warfare, and retaliate forcefully. They consider the USA as trying to curb its technological development in general. And recently they have started to forcefully retaliate against such actions.
Because of all of this I believe the USA really has to truly benevolently let the Chinese catch up to its AI frontier capabilities for a global pause to be feasible.
Note this is exactly what the Chinese have told the USA concerning nuclear weapons. The Chinese are building out their nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace as of today.