takes a deep breath
It has come to one of those most special times. A time when a long-term bet is resolved.
Gregory Lewis (aka Thrasymachus) made a bet with me that the Open Philanthropy Project would not report an increased confidence in MIRI's impact, nor an increased grant size in the next 2 years.
And today, just 4 months later, the Open Philanthropy Project has announced (early) a 3.75 million dollar grant to be spread over 3 years (that's half of MIRI's budget each year; it may also be increased if MIRI's budget increases), and that this was in large part due to a significant update of their views on MIRI after a very positive review of MIRI's work on Logical Uncertainty by an external Machine Learning expert.
The initial bet and wording is at my (4 month old) facebook post here.
Crossposted from Facebook