At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action.
We are hiring writers, on an ongoing basis, to produce “fortified essays” on critical topics like emerging science and technology, global health, biosecurity, economics and econometrics, technology policy, global risk, environmental science, and geopolitics. These are longform, educational essays fortified with testable predictions.
Writers can come from many walks of life; they might be researchers, rationality enthusiasts, postdocs, data scientists, or quantitative analysts, but they must be able to write on their areas of expertise with creativity, with clarity, and with embedded, quantified forecasts. These pieces should serve as primers on crucial topics, should showcase original analysis, and should spotlight and contextualize high-leverage questions.
For examples of essays that have already been published and to get a sense of what the expectations are, see this comparison of competing theories of inflation by economist Arnold Kling, or this exploration of the future of nanotechnology by physical chemist Kevin Ausman, or this look at the spread of the Islamic State in Nigeria by geopolitical analyst Adam Ragozzino, or this piece on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis by Ege Erdil.
Importantly, Essays must be accompanied by original forecast questions, which analytical storytellers will need to write and themselves publicly predict on.
Writers may submit up to five essays per month, each 1000+ words in length with at least two linked forecast questions. Essays are compensated at $300 each and at $25 per forecast question, with additional compensation awarded for especially high-quality essays attracting a significant readership.
Email christian at metaculus dot com with a resume or CV and a short pitch of a couple sentences for the proposed essay. Feel free to share links to or attach writing samples.