this doesn't seem to be a coherent argument -- author claims both that LLMs will indeed be used by chip design companies to save on human labor, and that they're not very good and can only replace the more routine parts of a chip designer's work. But...this isn't "YC is wrong, there is not a startup opportunity in using LLMs for chip design!" even if it's true it's just a more measured and realistic picture of what LLMs will be doing in chip design!
and they even make sure to shill their own AI-for-chip-hardware startup, which they claim is working on challenges that nobody else is: https://www.normalcomputing.com/
https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google the tl;dr: Google's first internal prediction market was intended to go public and stalled as the regulatory environment remained unfriendly; its successor focused on predictions about competitor activity rather than Google's own activity (which is less subject to "office politics" considerations blocking an honest assessment of Google's chances of success etc) and never intended to be public-facing, and is still in active use.
"who was that woman who was an influential mistress to the King of France, politically savvy and queen in all but name"? "which one? this just keeps happening"
https://nintil.com/dont-assume this is Jose Luis Ricon life advice, which unsurprisingly tells you to be less afraid of things and talk to people more.