https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.16490 "Formalising the intentional stance 1: attributing goals and beliefs to stochastic processes", a Bayes-inspired test for when you can model a process as "making belief updates" and acting accordingly, Nathaniel Virgo
https://causalincentives.com/ Causal Incentives Working Group, led by Tom Everitt at Google DeepMind, a causal (Pearl-style) framework for figuring out how agent-like AIs are
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique you can't just assume economic behavior, like the consumption function, will stay fixed when the policy regime changes and is known to change.
https://timrudner.github.io/semantic-isotropy/ Tim Rudner: if an AI's answers to the same prompt are distributed isotropically in some embedding space, i.e. not clustering around one correct answer, they are more likely to be hallucinated/non-factual.