Prediction: In a month, if we look at vaccine doses administered per day in the U.S., the FDA's approval of Comirnaty will not be reflected in a subsequent increase, even temporary, exceeding 10%. Confidence: 80%
Subsequent evidence suggests I had the right idea but was overly precise in my predictions or should have tried to predict the effect over a longer period of time to avoid extreme but temporary outcomes:
In the two weeks since the Food and Drug Administration approved Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, the US's average weekly vaccination rate has declined 38%.