I have a tentative hypothesis that the US is quite precarious. Although I believe we have likely avoided the worst outcomes this year, I think the next 10-30 yrs have some reasonable chance of going very badly. I don't know what that means, nor what the implications are for top cause areas.


I want to create a reading/listening list for exploring all this. Things I'm interested in:

  • history, particularly broad arcs/analysis of history (e.g., maybe I should read some Peter Turchin stuff)
  • history, particularly significant changes in global power dynamics (where power also involves technological advancement or similar)
  • ....other things I'm not thinking of that feel relevant


I have no background here at all. So even very basic recommendations would be appreciated.

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Search for "Samo Burja" on YouTube.


Recommend this paper, which suggests that wealthy democracies never fall.

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