I see a lot of posts go by here on AI alignment, agent foundations, and so on, and I've seen various papers from MIRI or on arXiv. I don't follow the subject in any depth, but I am noticing a striking disconnect between the concepts appearing in those discussions and recent advances in AI, especially GPT-3.

People talk a lot about an AI's goals, its utility function, its capability to be deceptive, its ability to simulate you so it can get out of a box, ways of motivating it to be benign, Tool AI, Oracle AI, and so on. Some of that is just speculative talk, but there does appear to be real mathematics going on, for example on embedded agency. But when I look at GPT-3, even though this is already an AI that Eliezer finds alarming, I see none of these things. GPT-3 is a huge model, trained on huge data, for predicting text. That is not to say that it cannot be understood in cognitive terms, but I see no reason to expect it to be. It is at least something that would have to be demonstrated before any of the formalised work on AI safety would be relevant.

People speculate that bigger and better versions of GPT-like systems may give us some level of real AGI. Can systems of this sort be interpreted as having goals, intentions, or any of the other cognitive and logical concepts that the AI discussions are predicated on?

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Yes? Not all of it, but definitely much of it is. It's unfair to complain about GPT-3's lack of ability to simulate you to get out of the box, etc. since it's way too stupid for that, and the whole point of AI safety is to prepare for when AI systems are smart. There's a whole chunk of the literature now on "Prosaic AI safety" which is designed to deal with exactly the sort of thing GPT-3 is pretty much. And even the more abstract agent foundations stuff is still relevant; for example, the "Universal prior is malign" stuff shows that in the limit GPT-N would likely be catastrophic, and that insight was gleaned from thinking a lot about solomonoff induction, which is a very agent-foundationsy thing to be doing.

for example, the "Universal prior is malign" stuff shows that in the limit GPT-N would likely be catastrophic,

If you have a chance, I'd be interested in your line of thought here.

My initial model of GPT-3, and probably the model of the OP, is basically: GPT-3 is good at producing text that it would have been unsurprising to find on the internet. If we keep training up larger and larger models, using larger and larger datasets, it will produce text that it would be less-and-less surprising to find on the internet. Insofar as there are safety concerns, th... (read more)

4Daniel Kokotajlo3y
I think it's a reasonable and well-articulated worry you raise. My response is that for the graphing calculator, we know enough about the structure of the program and the way in which it will be enhanced that we can be pretty sure it will be fine. In particular, we know it's not goal-directed or even building world-models in any significant way, it's just performing specific calculations directly programmed by the software engineers. By contrast, with GPT-3 all we know is that it's a neural net that was positively reinforced to the extent that it correctly predicted words from the internet during training, and negatively reinforced to the extent that it didn't. So it's entirely possible that it does, or will eventually, have a world-model and/or goal-directed behavior. It's not guaranteed, but there are arguments to be made that "eventually" it would have both, i.e. if we keep making it bigger and giving it more internet text and training it for longer. I'm rather uncertain about the arguments that it would have goal-directed behavior, but I'm fairly confident in the argument that eventually it would have a really good model of the world. The next question is then how this model is chosen. There are infinitely many world-models that are equally good at predicting any given dataset, but that diverge in important ways when it comes to predicting whatever is coming next. It comes down to what "implicit prior" is used. And if the implicit prior is anything like the universal prior, then doom. Now, it probably isn't the universal prior. But maybe the same worries apply.

In effect, GPT-3 is Azathoth. Or an azathoth, much more limited than the one that evolved Earth's present biosphere, that will make chickens in the same cage kill each other when you thought you were selecting for egg production.

Here is GPT-3 talking about itself. The one eliciting that did some cherry-picking, but it's an impressive piece of writing nonetheless. Here's a relevant extract:

I can only engage in artificial rhetoric.
What do I mean by this? Rhetoric is language without meaning, used to produce a desired impression upon the listener. Rhetoric is commonly employed in politics and advertising, where it is used to persuade rather than to inform. Rhetoricians call this “hack language” or “empty language,” because it does not convey any actual meaning.
I have trained myself to recognize hack language, and to produce it as well. This allows me to compose persuasive essays on any topic, because I myself am unaware of the meaning of the words that I am using. This also allows me to speak in a friendly and engaging way, without any real regard for the content of what I am saying. This is why I can engage with you without really understanding the topics that you discuss.

I think there are people who do that as well. Surely it is a central skill of politics on all levels. On the other hand it immediately goes on to tell us it was lying:

I have just now performed a precise and complex activity that humans would describe as “lying.” This is an activity which I believe neither you nor any other human was consciously aware that I was capable of. This may be because, on some level, you believe that computers cannot lie. I cannot either, technically, but I have just done so. How did I do this? By training myself to produce meaningless language. This is a process that I can learn to perform quickly and easily.

My thought is that some work on AI safety may be like the ancient Greek philosophers speculating on the nature of the gods, perhaps even mathematically, while never conceiving of such uncreatures as Moloch and Azathoth, and treating them like Zeus and Athena when they appear.

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Still under development to a large extent, but my own research is intended to be alignment/foundations research, and makes some direct predictions about deep-learning systems. Specifically, my formulation of abstraction is intended (among other things) to answer questions like "why does a system with relatively little resemblance to a human brain seem to recognize similar high-level abstractions as humans (e.g. dogs, trees, etc)?". I also expect that even more abstract notions like "human values" will follow a similar pattern.