[SEQ RERUN] Risk-Free Bonds Aren't

by Tyrrell_McAllister1 min read14th Jun 20114 comments


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Today's post, Risk-Free Bonds Aren't, was originally published on 22 June 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

There are no risk-free investments. Even US treasury bills would fail under a number of plausible "black swan" scenarios. Nassim Taleb's own investment strategy doesn't seem to take sufficient account of such possibilities. Risk management is always a good idea.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, in which we're going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order, so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was http://lesswrong.com/lw/hx/one_life_against_the_world/, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.

Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.

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What porftolio does SIAI hold, in pursuit of the maximum risk containment? Any bitcoins? ;-)

This post is a part of a sequence?

Perhaps it's a sequence of one.

At any rate, my understanding is that we are going through Eliezer's old posts in order, including those posts that are not part of a larger sequence.

Considering the state of fixed income markets around the world, and Moody's threat to downgrade US debt, quite timely.

ETA: specifically on Treasuries, looks like Taleb reconsidered: