I expect a lot of the benefit of the RAISE Act to come from the required safety and security protocols, but I wanted to get a sense of what scenarios people imagine when they think about the "Critical Harm" threshold. To my mind there are two main scenarios. In the first, a somewhat-strong AI is given more authority than it should be, fumbles, and is then contained. In the second, a genuinely strong AGI/ASI has decided killing its enemies is more important than being stealthy and humanity won't be able to contain it. A third scenario where an AGI launches a take-over attempt and fails seems unlikely to me. The first scenario seems like it will inevitably start happening soon and will happen every so often until the second scenario happens, but my timelines are short enough that the second scenario might happen first and

What other scenarios are people thinking of and what odds would they put on them being recoverable failures?