MichaelA's Shortform

Ways of describing the “trustworthiness” of probabilities

While doing research for a post on the idea of a distinction between “risk” and “(Knightian) uncertainty”, I came across a surprisingly large number of different ways of describing the idea that some probabilities may be more or less “reliable”, “trustworthy”, “well-grounded”, etc. than others, or things along those lines. (Note that I’m referring to the idea of different degrees of trustworthiness-or-whatever, rather than two or more fundamentally different types of probability that vary in trustwo

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3mr-hire1moI like this and would find a post moderately valuable. I think sometimes posts with a lot of synonyms are hard to have take aways from, because it's hard to remember all the synonyms. What I think is useful is comparing and contrasting the different takes, creating a richer view of the whole framework by examining it from many angles. Re Knightian Uncertainty vs. Risk, I wrote a post that discusses the interaction of different types of risks (including knightian) here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eA9a5fpi6vAmyyp74/how-to-understand-and-mitigate-risk [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eA9a5fpi6vAmyyp74/how-to-understand-and-mitigate-risk]

Thanks for the feedback!

I think sometimes posts with a lot of synonyms are hard to have take aways from, because it's hard to remember all the synonyms. What I think is useful is comparing and contrasting the different takes, creating a richer view of the whole framework by examining it from many angles.

Yeah, I'd agree with that, and it's part of why fleshing this out is currently low priority for me (since the latter approach takes actual work!), but remains theoretically on the list :)

2JesseClifton1moThere are "reliabilist" accounts of what makes a credence justified. There are different accounts, but they say (very roughly) that a credence is justified if it is produced by a process that is close to the truth on average. See (this paper)[https://philpapers.org/rec/PETWIJ-2 [https://philpapers.org/rec/PETWIJ-2] ]. Frequentist statistics can be seen as a version of reliabilism. Criteria like the Brier score for evaluating forecasters can also be understood in a reliabilist framework.

MichaelA's Shortform

by MichaelA 16th Jan 20204 comments

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