Folks, we're going to get so many warning shots. You're going to get tired of warning shots. You'll come to OpenAI HQ and say "please Mr. MTS, no more warning shots," and they'll say "I think I got it this time, fifteenth times' the charm" *blows up orphanage*
The trick is to pause right now, when warning shots are abundant but not deadly. The more we pause, the more warning shots we get, the more political momentum we get for further pause measures.
2lilkim2025
Not at all! I'm arguing that the relative capability difference is what matters, and small models without real-world backing will be competing for resources with massive models being run with national governments' money and power behind them.
If you had access to GPT-3 in 2011, when its closest competitors were Markov chain models, it could probably make you a millionaire pretty readily. Today, if you tried to build a business around GPT-3, you'd be quickly eaten alive by people with the same business idea running Opus-5, Kimi K3, or ChatGPT Sol.
