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A surprisingly large fraction of skeptical positions towards short AI timelines and AI risk are people saying things that, through a slightly cynical lens, are equivalent to:
I'm an AGI researcher, and I'm really struggling with this. This is so hard for me that I can't imagine anyone else succeeding. Therefore, there won't be AGI in my lifetime.
I have the impression that most of the really skeptical people hold their position not just because it's hard for them to solve AI risk but also because they believe that powerful institutions are governed by strong economic pressures to do the wrong thing.
This post is a container for my short-form writing. See this post for meta-level discussion about shortform.