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I am now reasonably convinced (p>0.8) that SARS-CoV-2 originated in an accidental laboratory escape from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
1. If SARS-CoV-2 originated in a non-laboratory zoonotic transmission, then the geographic location of the initial outbreak would be drawn from a distribution which is approximately uniformly distributed over China (population-weighted); whereas if it originated in a laboratory, the geographic location is drawn from the commuting region of a lab studying that class of viruses, of which there is currently only one. Wuhan has <1% of the population of China, so this is (order of magnitude) a 100:1 update.
2. No factor other than the presence of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and related biotech organizations distinguishes Wuhan or Hubei from the rest of China. It is not the location of the bat-caves that SARS was found in; those are in Yunnan. It is not the location of any previous outbreaks. It does not have documented higher consumption of bats than the rest of China.
3. There have been publicly reported laboratory escapes of SARS twice before in Beijing, so we know this class of virus is difficult to contain in a laboratory setting.
4. We know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was studying SARS-like bat coronaviruses. As reported in the Washington Post today, US diplomats had expressed serious concerns about the lab's safety.
5. China has adopted a policy of suppressing research into the origins of SARS-CoV-2, which they would not have done if they expected that research to clear them of scandal. Some Chinese officials are in a position to know.
To be clear, I don't think this was an intentional release. I don't think it was intended for use as a bioweapon. I don't think it underwent genetic engineering or gain-of-function research, although nothing about it conclusively rules this out. I think the researchers had good intentions, and screwed up.
The most recent episode of the 80k podcast had Andy Weber on it. He was the US Assistant Secretary of Defense, "responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction".
Towards the end of the episode he casually drops quite the bomb:
Well, over time, evidence for natural spread hasn’t been produced, we haven’t found the intermediate species, you know, the pangolin that was talked about last year. I actually think that the odds that this was a laboratory-acquired infection that spread perhaps unwittingly into the community in Wuhan is about a ... (read more)
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