Raemon's Shortform

Raemon

This is a special post for quick takes by Raemon. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.

This is an experiment in short-form content on LW2.0. I'll be using the comment section of this post as a repository of short, sometimes-half-baked posts that either:

don't feel ready to be written up as a full post
I think the process of writing them up might make them worse (i.e. longer than they need to be)

I ask people not to create top-level comments here, but feel free to reply to comments like you would a FB post.

This is a special post for quick takes by Raemon. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.

This is an experiment in short-form content on LW2.0. I'll be using the comment section of this post as a repository of short, sometimes-half-baked posts that either:

don't feel ready to be written up as a full post
I think the process of writing them up might make them worse (i.e. longer than they need to be)

I ask people not to create top-level comments here, but feel free to reply to comments like you would a FB post.

I would phrase this another way, which is that when making a prediction, you need to satisfice operationalization, but should seek to maximize cruxiness. Operationalization just needs to be good enough for the readers (including your future self) to get a good grasp of what you mean. Cruxiness is what makes the prediction worth thinking about.

Raemon's Shortform

22

Ω 4

Raemon's Shortform

22

Ω 4