I'm excited to let you know that Metaculus is launching the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament, a large-scale forecasting tournament with $50,000 in prizes. Participation is open to all.

The tournament is intended to provide a proof of concept for probabilistic forecasting for key questions related to the future of AI. The aim is to generate a massive dataset of AI forecasts over a range of time-frames, develop models to optimally aggregate those forecasts, and use these to build a map of the future of AI.

Those interested may pre-register here to stay up to date on the tournament. Participation will help contribute to elucidating key questions about the future of AI. The tournament starts next week and ends mid-April of 2021.

Prizes will be awarded for the most accurate predictions made about AI advances over 6 month, 1-year, 2-year timeframes. Forecasts over longer timeframes (5+ years) will also be made. Additional prizes are awarded for well-reasoned arguments and/or appropriate models for predictions on questions, and analyses of predictions that are made in the course of the tournament.