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AI Timelines

Edited by Ben Pace last updated 29th Jul 2020

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it's the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the dynamics of AI progress after human-level AI is developed (e.g. will it be a single project or the whole economy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

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Posts tagged AI Timelines
215Draft report on AI timelines
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Ajeya Cotra
5y
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56
156Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
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Eliezer Yudkowsky
4y
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144
339Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
3y
141
135Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
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Amandango, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ben Pace, datscilly
5y
QΩ
98
107My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
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zhukeepa
5y
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5
112Extrapolating GPT-N performance
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Lukas Finnveden
5y
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31
185human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal
nostalgebraist
6y
60
170Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years
Steven Byrnes
6y
24
152There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
8y
72
90Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
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Eliezer Yudkowsky, CarlShulman
4y
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16
229Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
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Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
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86
155Conjecture internal survey: AGI timelines and probability of human extinction from advanced AI
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Maris Sala
2y
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5
140Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
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Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
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19
38Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
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anson.ho
3y
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0
268Are we in an AI overhang?
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Andy Jones
5y
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106
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