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AllAmericanBreakfast's
Shortform
by
DirectedEvolution
11th Jul 2020
1 min read
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AllAmericanBreakfast's Shortform — LessWrong
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DirectedEvolution
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A workflow for forecasting
Identify a topic with pressing need for informative forecasting
Break topic down into rough qualitative questions
Prioritize questions by informativeness
Refine high priority questions to articulate importance, provide background information, make falsifiable, define resolution criteria
Establish base rate
Identify factors to adjust base rate up and down
Create schedule for updating forecast over time
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