The unlikely hypothetical scenario in which hantavirus is on track to become a pandemic is becoming less likely day by day. We continue to see Hondius-linked infections limited exclusively to people who were aboard.
Yet Polymarket's had the price of "yes" on the "hantavirus pandemic 2026" market sitting on 7.1-7.2 cents for the last four days. Day by day, this is looking more like a price that reflects the opportunity cost of holding shares of "no" through the rest of 2026 to make a 7.6% profit (coupled with the risk of market tampering), rather than the market's judgment of the likelihood of a hantavirus pandemic.
How do you feel about the idea of the WHO declaring a PHEIC over hantavirus? In part on the advice of people like yourself, the Sentinel Newsletter folks, Peter Wildeford, etc, I am trying to do the lord's work by buying lots of No shares over at Kalshi, where (thanks in part to myself) the odds of a WHO hantavirus-PHEIC declaration have as of now been bid down to 8.5%. Is this still crazy-high, in your view? If I was fully, 100% confident that hantavirus was a guaranteed nothingburger, I'd be comfortable trying to bid it down further, to around 5%, which (again, in a world where I was totally confident this was zero-risk) would still give me annualized returns of around 10% when you toss in kalshi's 3.25% interest payments.
I'd also be curious to hear your take on their "pandemic for any reason in 2026" market. I am assuming / hoping this refers to the WHO's new "pandemic emergency" tier that's a step above a normal PHEIC, but unfortunately it's not totally clear from the rules. Even assuming this refers strictly to an official "pandemic emergency" declaration, it seems more likely than hantavirus-PHEIC to me. Would you agree?
I have far less confidence in whether the WHO will declare hantavirus a PHEIC vs. a pandemic, because I just don't understand their criteria for the PHEIC designation. We all know what a pandemic is. A pandemic, to me, is clear "no," yet is still at around 6.5 cents on Polymarket when I checked earlier today. A PHEIC is a much lower bar, that I can tell, and what seems crazy to me is that shares of "no hantavirus pandemic 2026" on Polymarket is apparently only 2 cents more expensive than shares of "no hantavirus PHEIC 2026" on Kalshi. If I was forced to pi... (read more)
I think of this as being a "Lizardman's constant" for prediction markets. Essentially anything, no matter how extremely unlikely, can get a few percent in a prediction market with duration of a few months or more.