[SEQ RERUN] Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc.

by MinibearRex1 min read23rd Dec 20121 comment


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Today's post, Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc. was originally published on 09 December 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):


A few tricks Yudkowsky uses to think about the future.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where we'll be going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was The Bad Guy Bias, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.

Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.

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An AI might go from infrahuman to transhuman in less than a week?

That doesn't seem like quite an antiprediction. An antiprediction would be that it will take less than a week or more than a century. Predicting less than a week would take a bit of evidence on top of that.