This is a special post for quick takes by SorenJ. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
Comment Permalink
6
We're still in the part of AI 2027 that was easy to predict. They point this out themselves.
21
Indeed! Note also that I started the timeline for this fit with Opus 3 as the first model. But I thought this was worth posting, because subjectively it felt like the second half of 2025 went slower than AI2027 prediced (and Daniel even tweeted at one point that he had increased his timelines near EOY 2025), yet by the METR metric we are still pretty close to on track.
1