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Campaign update: With 56% of the vote in, AI safety champion Scott Wiener and Connie Chan (both Democrats) have advanced to the November election. Wiener got 41.3% of the vote, compared to Chan's 28.6%. This is roughly what I expected.
Wiener is favored to win in November, but it's not a done deal, for a few reasons:
- Voters for the third-place finisher, Saikat Chakrabarti, might go disproportionately to Chan over Wiener: I think Chakrabarti is more ideologically similar to Chan overall, though it's not totally clear.
- Republicans really don't like Wiener, and might prefer Chan over Wiener.
- Nancy Pelosi, who endorsed Chan, will probably use what power she has to try to further boost Chan.
Wiener is about 70% to win per prediction markets, and that sounds about right to me. (Maybe it's a tad low; my intuition is more like 75%.)
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