The recent advancements in language models, Gato, Minerva, etc. suggest to me that there will be AGI-level "predictor"/"reasoner"/generative model sooner than an "agent". There is some subtlety though w.r.t. Gato, which is an "agent", but decidedly not an RL agent, it doesn't intrinsically value exploration, and it doesn't learn itself/bootstrap itself, and instead does imitation learning from other (actual RL) agents.
I feel that this reasoner may suddenly generalise to astonishing capability, e. g. prove math theorems far beyond human comprehension, derive the theory of everything from data, and advance the state of the art in political science, ethics, and engineering, while remaining a non-agent and thus remaining relatively safe.
I feel that it will be very important then to resist turning such an AI into an agent by attaching actuators to it and giving it tasks. However, this will be hard, because economic incentives for doing so will be enormous.
This shortform is probably a vague expression of the idea, which is much better thought through here: Conditioning Generative Models for Alignment.