As part of the 2022 ACX prediction contest, which I am co-running with Eric Neyman, I wanted to get market prices for all of the predictions. These market prices will be included with the contest data, which should be released soon.
This ended up being harder than I expected, and I can't guarantee this data is error-free. So in the interest of transparency, I'm making this post to explain where all the numbers came from.
Before I get into it, some notes:
Anyway, here we go:
Future Perfect predictions
Matt Yglesias predictions
See also the excellent work of SimonM, who did this exercise for Scott's 2021 predictions.
17. Unemployment below five percent in December: 73 (Kalshi said 92% that unemployment never goes above 6%; 49 from Manifold)
I'm not sure exactly how you're converting 92% unemployment < 6% to < 5%, but I'm not entirely convinced by your methodology?
15. The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes: None (couldn't find any markets)
Looking at the SOFR Dec-22 3M futures 99.25/99.125 put spread on the 14-Feb, I put this probability at ~84%. Thanks for doing this, I started doing it before I saw your competition and then decided against since it would have made cheating too easy. (Also why I didn't enter)
Thanks for this feedback!
Re 17: You are right to be skeptical, because my methodology for this one was silly and ad hoc. I somewhat arbitrarily turned a 92% chance that unemployment never goes above 6% into a 80% chance that unemployment isn't above 5% in December. This is completely unprincipled, but I didn't have any better ideas, and the alternative was to ignore the Kalshi market completely and defer entirely to the 5 betters on Manifold, which seemed worse. If you have a more reasonable way of getting a number here, I'll happily defer to it.
Re 15: Thanks! I'll edit that number in and point to your comment.
Thanks also for the work you put into doing this last year! That post (along with Zvi's re-predictions) led to me running a small prediction contest with a handful of friends. That went well, was a lot of fun, and straightforwardly grew into me asking Scott if he wanted me and Eric to run the same thing for the ACX community. So, making up some numbers and hoping I can use Shapley values correctly, I estimate that you get 40% of the credit for this year's prediction contest happening.