2022 ACX predictions: market prices

4SimonM

2Sam Marks

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17. Unemployment below five percent in December:

73(Kalshi said 92% that unemployment never goes above 6%; 49 from Manifold)

I'm not sure exactly how you're converting 92% unemployment < 6% to < 5%, but I'm not entirely convinced by your methodology?

15. The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes:

None(couldn't find any markets)

Looking at the SOFR Dec-22 3M futures 99.25/99.125 put spread on the 14-Feb, I put this probability at ~84%.

Thanks for doing this, I started doing it before I saw your competition and then decided against since it would have made cheating too easy. (Also why I didn't enter)

Thanks for this feedback!

Re 17: You are right to be skeptical, because my methodology for this one was silly and ad hoc. I somewhat arbitrarily turned a 92% chance that unemployment never goes above 6% into a 80% chance that unemployment isn't above 5% in December. This is completely unprincipled, but I didn't have any better ideas, and the alternative was to ignore the Kalshi market completely and defer entirely to the 5 betters on Manifold, which seemed worse. If you have a more reasonable way of getting a number here, I'll happily defer to it.

Re 15: Thanks! I'll edit that number in and point to your comment.

Thanks also for the work you put into doing this last year! That post (along with Zvi's re-predictions) led to me running a small prediction contest with a handful of friends. That went well, was a lot of fun, and straightforwardly grew into me asking Scott if he wanted me and Eric to run the same thing for the ACX community. So, making up some numbers and hoping I can use Shapley values correctly, I estimate that you get 40% of the credit for this year's prediction contest happening.

As part of the 2022 ACX prediction contest, which I am co-running with Eric Neyman, I wanted to get market prices for all of the predictions.

^{[1]}These market prices will be included with the contest data, which should be released soon.This ended up being harder than I expected, and I can't guarantee this data is error-free. So in the interest of transparency, I'm making this post to explain where all the numbers came from.

Before I get into it, some notes:

as of February 14, 2022, which was the last day for contest submissions.please let me know! Also please let me know if there's a relevant market which I missed or if you see a way to back predictions out of financial markets which I didn't think of (I've noted such cases below).Anyway, here we go:

Scott predictions14(12 from Manifold; also this market from Kalshi saying 20% for having approval >45% on election day in November)36(Manifold)73(Manifold)60(Manifold)76(88 from Manifold; 60% chance of invasion from Metaculus)15(Manifold)15(20 from Manifold; 10% chance of military conflict from Metaculus)None(no one had yet made a bet in the Manifold market)None(no one has made a bet in the Manifold marketeven now)50(GME options; Manifold said 24%, but there were 2 bets so I'm ignoring it)8(5 from BTC options; 11 from Metaculus; 33 from Manifold)20(17 from ETH options; 83(!) from Manifold)36(from 2 Manifold bets; I don't know of a way to back this out of options prices but would love to hear suggestions)54(Dow options; ignoring the one (1) Manifold bet)30(Dow options; ignoring the 3 Manifold bets)45(Manifold; the financial markets probably have an opinion about this but I don't know how to find it - would appreciate any help!)73(Kalshi said 92% that unemployment never goes above 6%; 49 from Manifold)14(Manifold)94(71 from Manifold; 97 from Metaculus)None(Manifold had no bettors)2(congrats to theoneperson who bet on this on Manifold)80(Manifold)None(no bettors on Manifold)9(Manifold)None(stillno bets on Manifold)79(Manifold)38(Manifold)51(47 from Manifold; 53 from Metaculus)61(Manifold)None(sad Manifold)61(Manifold)91(averyoptimistic Manifold)12(Manifold)42(Manifold)Future Perfect predictions29(33 from Metaculus (technically for Dec 2021 to Dec 2022); 25 from Manifold)73(73 from PredictIt; 72 from Smarkets; 65 from Metaculus; 84 from Manifold)46(62 from Metaculus; 26 from Manifold)77(75 from Polymarket; 79 from PredictIt; 74 from Metaculus; 79 from Smarkets; 81 from Manifold)28(25 from Polymarket; 26 from PredictIt; 34 from Metaculus; 25 from Smarkets; 33 from Manifold)76(80 from PredictIt; 75 from Metaculus; 63 from Manifold)98(Metaculus (market is technically about whether US travelers will need to quarantine); still no bets on Manifold)95(Manifold)56(50 from Metaculus; 68 from two bets on Manifold)76(76 from Metaculus; 77 from Manifold)92(Metaculus; ignoring one bet from Manifold)81(Manifold; Metaculus has a market that only counts countries that are releasing data, so e.g. not North Korea; FP and Scott might resolve this one differently)57(59 from Metaculus; 55 from Manifold)71(Manifold)73(74 from Metaculus; 71 from Manifold)35(31 from Metaculus; 49 from two bets on Manifold)70(62 from Metaculus; 80 from Manifold)36(35 from Metaculus; 37 from Manifold)Matt Yglesias predictions53(63 from PredictIt; 48 from Metaculus; 45 eyeballed from Smarkets (their binning wasn't compatible with this question))92(PredictIt and Metaculus)42(Manifold; but maybe there's a way to back this out of other markets?)91(Manifold)None(couldn't find any markets)89(90 from Metaculus; 86 from Manifold)None(couldn't find any markets)96(Metaculus)77(same as above; this appeared twice in the contest, oops)77(78 from PredictIt; 74 from Manifold)80(Kalshi)70(67 from Polymarket; 72 from PredictIt)74(Manifold)None(couldn't find any markets)84(SOFR futures; see this comment by SimonM)26(17 from PredictIt; 20 from Smarkets; 45 from Metaculus on whether he loses the election; why the big difference here - is there concern that he would win the election and lose power anyway?)80(Smarkets)76(Manifold)^{^}See also the excellent work of SimonM, who did this exercise for Scott's 2021 predictions.