Maybe my biggest medium-term worry about transformative AI, other than the takeover stuff, is a constellation of concerns I sometimes abbreviate to "political economy." Right now a large fraction of humans in democracies can live and support their families as a direct result of voluntarily exchanging their labor. It'd take active acts of violence to break from this (pretty good, all things considered) status quo. As a peacetime norm, this is unusually good relative to the history of human civilization.
At some point in the future (in the "good" futures, I'd add), there'll be a natural transition from that to people living and supporting their families as a result of UBI or welfare or other gifts from companies or the State. Ie they will now be surviving explicitly due to someone else's largesse[1]. This seems bad!
Unfortunately I don't have a good answer here, even in principle. But it seems worth considering! I vaguely wish more people would work on it.
@NunoSempere challenged me to try to figure out an answer to the question anyway.
I agree. What's the bottleneck in creating good answers to this question? Money? Talent? Would you be happy to give a shot at fleshing this out?
I don't have a great answer, but I attempted to flesh out the object-level answer below, as a first-pass:
To ease the transition, this should be seen in earlier stages as a complement to existing welfare systems rather than a substitute to them. Eg if someone's dumb enough to gamble their monthly AI windfall dividends away, different societies can either choose to let them starve or (my preferred solution) still feed them, perhaps until AI-assisted tools can cure their gambling addictions. In general, don't let "the windfall shares solution can't solve all of society's problems" be a blocker to implementing it.
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tbc I don't think this is an amazing answer. I worry both that this won't be enough and that we won't implement anything as good as this.
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As for the meta-question of why it's not getting more concern
I don't know what the bottlenecks to better answers are, and why other people aren't working on this. Two obvious answers come to mind:
State power is of course backed by the threat of violence, so it may not be just largesse. But a) "my desired system is the peaceful default, and it takes violence to wrest me away from it" is more stable and dignified than "my desired system relies on the constant threat of violence to hold", and b) a fair amount of democratic power comes from the democratic nature (and the ease of mass mobilization) of guns, and this has also been eroded by technological developments in the last century, and will also likely be further eroded by developments in AI.