At Ought, we’ve started making bets on our continuous predictions. We’ve found it a fun way to hold ourselves accountable and to combat overconfidence.
Here’s a thread for people to share continuous beliefs they’re willing to bet on, and make bets on other people’s beliefs. You can use Elicit to automatically generate a fair bet with positive expected value based on each person’s beliefs (this post explains more about how we generate the bet).
Make a bet
To share a belief you’re willing to bet on:
- Go to elicit.org, type in your question, and make a distribution of your beliefs
- Take a snapshot
- Post the snapshot URL and a screenshot image in a comment on this thread
To bet on someone else’s belief:
- Click on their snapshot URL. Click on the title to get a blank distribution
- Make your own distribution and take a snapshot
- Import your snapshot into theirs by pasting your snapshot URL into the ‘Show more’ dropdown on their snapshot
- Go to the Interpret tab to see the bet
Here is a bet we proposed between 538 and The Economist on Biden's electoral college votes:
If the result is between 290.5 and 398.1, 538 pays The Economist $35.98. Otherwise, The Economist pays 538 $64.02.