At Ought, we’ve started making bets on our continuous predictions. We’ve found it a fun way to hold ourselves accountable and to combat overconfidence.
Here’s a thread for people to share continuous beliefs they’re willing to bet on, and make bets on other people’s beliefs. You can use Elicit to automatically generate a fair bet with positive expected value based on each person’s beliefs (this post explains more about how we generate the bet).
Make a bet
To share a belief you’re willing to bet on:
- Go to elicit.org, type in your question, and make a distribution of your beliefs
- Take a snapshot
- Post the snapshot URL and a screenshot image in a comment on this thread
To bet on someone else’s belief:
- Click on their snapshot URL. Click on the title to get a blank distribution
- Make your own distribution and take a snapshot
- Import your snapshot into theirs by pasting your snapshot URL into the ‘Show more’ dropdown on their snapshot
- Go to the Interpret tab to see the bet
Here is a bet we proposed between 538 and The Economist on Biden's electoral college votes:
If the result is between 290.5 and 398.1, 538 pays The Economist $35.98. Otherwise, The Economist pays 538 $64.02.
I don't feel super strongly about this, but think it'd be fun to bet on if anyone disagrees with me (here are the Metaculus resolution details):
When will a technology replace screens? (snapshot link here)
I'm happy to bet on my timelines: https://elicit.org/builder/zKNSxZIhn
However, since I don't expect money to matter much in the event that I win the bet, I ask that the bets be small. I furthermore am worried that by betting on longer timelines people will make themselves psychologically more resistant to updating towards shorter timelines... The same goes for me, of course, making me extra averse to doing this. Idk.