AGI Predictions

This was a good catch! I did actually mean world GDP, not world GDP growth. Because people have already predicted on this, I added the correct questions above as new questions, and am leaving the previous questions here for reference:

Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong

If you're the question author, you can resolve your question on Elicit by clicking 'Yes' or 'No' in the expanded question!

AGI Predictions

How to add your own questions:

  1. Go to
  2. Type your question into the field at the top
  3. Click on the question title, and click the copy URL button
  4. Paste the URL into the LessWrong editor

See our launch post for more details!

Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong

You can search for the question on and see the history of all predictions made! E.G. If you copy the question title in this post, and search by clicking Filter then pasting the title into "Question title contains," you can find the question here.

Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong

I'm counting using this to express credence on claims as a non-prediction use!

Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong

Thanks!! It's primarily intended for prediction, but I feel excited about people experimenting with different ways of using this and seeing which are most useful & how they change discussions, so am interested to see what happens if you use it for other purposes too.

Betting Thread

I don't feel super strongly about this, but think it'd be fun to bet on if anyone disagrees with me (here are the Metaculus resolution details): 

When will a technology replace screens? (snapshot link here)

Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines

This is a really good point, thanks for bringing this up! We'll look into how to improve this.

2020's Prediction Thread

Yeah this seems pretty reasonable. It's actually stark looking at the Our World in Data – that seems really high per year. Do you have your model somewhere? I'd be interested to see it.

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