This was a good catch! I did actually mean world GDP, not world GDP growth. Because people have already predicted on this, I added the correct questions above as new questions, and am leaving the previous questions here for reference:
If you're the question author, you can resolve your question on Elicit by clicking 'Yes' or 'No' in the expanded question!
How to add your own questions:
- Go to elicit.org/binary
- Type your question into the field at the top
- Click on the question title, and click the copy URL button
- Paste the URL into the LessWrong editor
See our launch post for more details!
You can search for the question on elicit.org/binary and see the history of all predictions made! E.G. If you copy the question title in this post, and search by clicking Filter then pasting the title into "Question title contains," you can find the question here.
I'm counting using this to express credence on claims as a non-prediction use!
Thanks!! It's primarily intended for prediction, but I feel excited about people experimenting with different ways of using this and seeing which are most useful & how they change discussions, so am interested to see what happens if you use it for other purposes too.
Thanks Jacob!!
This is a really good point, thanks for bringing this up! We'll look into how to improve this.
An update: We've set up a way to link your LessWrong account to your Elicit account. By default, all your LessWrong predictions will show up in Elicit's binary database but you can't add notes or filter for your predictions.
If you link your accounts, you can:
* Filter for and browse your LessWrong predictions on Elicit (you'll be able to see them by filtering for 'My predictions')
* See your calibration for LessWrong predictions you've made that have resolved
* Add notes to your LessWrong predictions on Elicit
* Predict on LessWrong questions in the Elicit app
If you want us to link your accounts, send me an email (amanda@ought.org) with your LessWrong username and your Elicit account email!