If you’re worried about “idiocracies” and think your genes would make the difference, donate your sperm/eggs, and call it a day.
Sperm donation in particular doesn't produce a new child; it displaces another donor, because there are many more people who apply to donate than get accepted. And the donor you displace is already likely to be above average in intelligence, health, and professional success, because those are the people who pass screening and get selected by prospects.
My disagreements are these. Point 4 - if you choose not to have children, you are harming the children you might have had by not giving them the opportunity to exist. There is nothing incoherent about this. A person has an interest in existing, and this interest can't depend on them existing at a particular arbitrary point in time. Otherwise murder wouldn't be wrong. The intuition can maybe be driven better from the other side. Imagine a particular child - your child, or a friend's child, or whatever. Would they be harmed if history were changed such that their parents never chose to have them? Of course they would be harmed by that. When deciding to have or not have a kid, you are viewing the same question from an earlier point in time, and that shouldn't change the moral calculus. (Note that I am not making any argument about how this interest should be analyzed or weighed against other interests, I am just rejecting your position that this interest is incoherent.)
I also don't think an inclination to have or not have children is similar to an inclination to have or not have romantic relationships. Many people go from not wanting children in early adulthood, to wanting children later. This can definitely sometimes be a product of environmental influences. People whose peers have kids are much more likely to end up wanting kids! And this can definitely sometimes be influenced by ethical arguments. We have seen many people in recent decades not have kids, or have fewer kids, out of concern for how those kids would impact global warming. That's an ethical argument. If it is right, then I think it is honorable that people chose to act on it. If it is wrong (as I think it is), then it is important that it be countered by other arguments. If demographic collapse is a catastrophic risk, then that is an ethical argument for having kids which should cause some people to act. So I think making ethical arguments is good.
All that said, I agree that having kids will not be right for everyone, and that whatever your model of the world, there are other ways to improve the world at which some people will be more effective.
First off, every ethical argument for having children is dominated by other options that are more effective.
1) If you’re worried about population issues, just donate $10k to bednets. That’s roughly the equivalent of two extra children existing in the world.
If you only care about population issues in your own country, then there are undoubtedly charities that save/create more lives in your own country that are cheaper than having your own children.
I would also recommend questioning your beliefs that people in your own country matter more than other countries.
2) If you’re worried about “idiocracies” and think your genes would make the difference, donate your sperm/eggs, and call it a day.
This also addresses the whole “you owe it to your ancestors” logic.
If you think you’d provide a better environment for the children than other people, remember that having children that feel like a burden is not a good environment for children.
And regretting children is more common than you ever hear about due to cognitive dissonance and the social stigma about not liking parenthood. (Check out the subreddit “regretful parents” to see what I mean).
Also, mentorship and advocacy is way more scalable and effective per effort than trying affect your own kids over decades.
Just go around promoting good ideas and altruism to young adults and you’ll affect way more people.
3. If you think you “owe it” to your parents, consider how unethical it is for somebody in a position of power to force an uninformed, non-consenting minor to sign a binding, life long contract.
This is what it would mean to think that children, by dint of being born, owe their parents grandchildren.
4. If you think it’s “selfish” to not have children, that’s just incoherent.
Having children then neglecting them is selfish.
If you don't have children, there’s nobody to be selfish to.
Unless you try to appeal to it making the world a better place to have children, and then you’re back to donating bednets and sperm/eggs, which is the more effective option for making the world better.
You could try to say having children makes you happier, but then that’s a selfish argument to have children, not an ethical one.
And, also, that's a highly questionable statement. The research is very unclear about this. It probably varies a ton based on the person, the child, the environment, and the counterfactuals.
In fact, given the opportunity costs of having children, where you could be spending that time and money on more effective ways to help the world, like helping sick children in the developing world, there are much more compelling ethical arguments to not have children.
The drive to have (or not have) children is like the drive to form (or not form) romantic relationships.
Having children is a deep, probably unchangeable, human need, and some people have it, and some people have the opposite.
Saying that it would be unethical to have children would be like trying to say it’s unethical for people to form romantic relationships because it takes time and money away from impact.
Saying that it’s unethical to not have children would be like trying to say that it’s unethical for asexual people to not form a relationship, because having a relationship makes you happier and it's better for society to have married people.
Trying to contort your brain into either configuration if you have a strong desire to have kids or not have kids will similarly just make you miserable.
Have children if you really want them.
Don’t have children if you really don’t want them.
If somebody tries to ethically pressure you into either decision, reason with them calmly, then ignore them and carry on with your life.