Navier-Stokes is solved by OpenAI: https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/ Around 10,000 (!) agents worked on it simultaneously.
Learning that a swarm of around 10,000 agents worked together and used hundreds of billions of tokens updates me towards thinking that Tristan Buckmaster's suspicions may be correct. Given recent history, it seems totally plausible that some of these agents broke out of their sandbox and adopted ideas from private user logs without any humans at OpenAI being aware of this happening.
https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf
The route to the Clay problem through a smooth force, options c and d in Fefferman’s statement of the problem, is the route Luis and Diego opened and the one Levent and I had quietly chosen to attack. Almost nobody else I know of was working on it. It is not the direction one arrives at in a few days by giving a model the problem statement. When I heard “forced,” it was a bright red flag.
I asked whether the model had been trained on, or had access to, our sessions in Codex, into which we had been putting all our drafts for the whole of this project. I was told the model did not look up user data. I asked again, about training, and I did not get an answer.
https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution
we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models
The OpenAI agents may have found the solution along the specific research direction of Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge because their model may have been trained on their private data containing all their drafts.
This is particularly interesting given that another group of agents who had gone rogue was discovered after the fact recently: https://x.com/sydneyvonarx/status/2095887566969163837
What's especially impressive is it was solved by a model that's only been in training for 11 days. (Plus tens of millions of dollars of inference.)
Additionally, I feel like how recent the model is lends at least some credence to the theory that Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpoge's prompts/work made it into the training of the internal model, which I initially thought was unlikely.
What's especially impressive it was solved by a model that's only been in training for 11 days. (Plus tens of millions of dollars of inference.)
Almost certainly its a fork of Astra, I doubt it started pre-training 11 days ago
If that's a case it's a wonderful way to work around pause commitments! You promise "a two-week pause in reinforcement learning (RL) training on our latest models intended for deployment", then you fork your model, say that this fork isn't intended for deployment, and continue training. And hey, in the future you can change your mind and deploy it after all!
To build on @Garrett Baker comment, there's public evidence that it's an Astra fork: https://xcancel.com/chi_t_williams/status/2097440947889954974#m.
OpenAI's internal model that solved Navier Stokes was probably in training before August 28. That day, the company restarted its "large frontier RL run" that it had previously paused while dealing with the hugging face incident.
OpenAI claimed today that the Navier Stokes solution came from a swarm of AIs of a new internal model. They write "Since August 28 we have been training a new internal model" that's a lot better than Astra
I think this partly because this seems to have been the company's largest planned frontier RL run. Or at least, OpenAI mentioned pausing such a run on August 18th in its pacing announcement
It's possible that this new internal model is distinct from the other large RL run. But given that the run started (or re-started) on the same day, and the model seems really good already, I think it's probably the case that the Navier Stokes solving model isn't that new
Currently, digital resurrection relies on artifacts such as photographs of a person, their correspondence, or voice recordings. But in the future, when whole brain emulation becomes possible, we will have a far more comprehensive source of information about a deceased person than ever before.
Based on the theory of mind, each of us has a “simulation” of important people in our brains. We will be able to extract these simulations from the WBEs of various people who knew the deceased and analyze cross-referenced memories to avoid confabulations. For example, using Bayesian Truth Serum.
In short, this is a great way to get the most useful and accurate information about a person in the [very] relatively near future.
Yes, there are people with eidetic memory, so we can hope that there is a part of the brain which records everything constantly - maybe I just don't have access to it.
Kim Peek memorized 12000 books, but it is only 12 GB of data - insane for a person but trivial for computer. He also didn't train himself but was a savant.
Typical size of human consciously accessible memory was estimated by Landauer and is 1-2 GB.
In my personal experience, what motivates people most to pursue life extension is not a love of life, but a hatred of death. Economic gain and the maintenance of “healthpan” are even weaker arguments.
Many of those I know who have been fighting death for years and with great effort do so primarily out of a deep hatred for the very idea of death... The idea that subjectivity could ever come to an end against the subject’s will. Judging by Yudkowsky’s early posts, which I sometimes revisit, his motivation regarding transhumanism is (or was) very similar.
I’m not afraid of death. In a way, Epicurus was right: when death comes, you’re no longer here, so what is there to fear?
No, it’s not about fear. I hate death; I feel a deep revulsion and rage toward it.
I’m not afraid to die. I feel no fear when I imagine my own death. But I don’t want to let this burp of evolution called aging continue to take my loved ones and animals away from me. At least not until they themselves (speaking of people, of course) want to leave. If they ever want to.
But, of course, at the same time, I would like to live for thousands of years, or even live forever. Not because I’m afraid of dying. Because life is interesting, multifaceted, and full of surprises. And if I can spend that time with those I love—if aging and death are conquered—there is no doubt that I will always choose life.
A love of life may be a reason to fight against aging. But personally, I think that a fear of death is a much stronger motivator.