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[LINK] Normalcy bias

by Stuart_Armstrong
22nd May 2014
1 min read
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Personal Blog

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[LINK] Normalcy bias
5Tenoke
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[-]Tenoke11y50

Downvoted, since this is definitely the type of post which is more suited for the OT in my opinion - a simple wiki link to a fairly popular bias.

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong11y00

OT?

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[-]Tenoke11y30

Open Thread.

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[-]Shmi11y10

Also relevant: the first stage of processing negative news is usually denial (the Kübler-Ross model).

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A useful bias to quote in discussions that spring up around the subjects we deal with on Less Wrong: Normalcy Bias. It's rather specific, but useful:

The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This may results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations.

The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.