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Occasionally I see a well received post that I think is just fundamentally flawed, but I refrain from criticising it because I don't want to get downvoted to hell. 😅
This is a failure mode of LessWrong.
I'm merely rationally responding to karma incentives. 😌
Part of the advantage of being specific about 2022 and 2023 is that it allows people to update on it toward taking the whole scenario more or less seriously.
1DragonGod
I didn't need to see 2022 to know that the scenario would not be an accurate description of reality.
On priors that was just very unlikely.
Having scenarios that are unlikely based on priors means that you can update more if they turn out to go that way than scenarios that you deemed to be likely to happen anyway.