Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) | v1.14.0Oct 3rd 2020 | tagged posts | ||
Fluttershy | v1.13.0Nov 6th 2014 | (+49/-24) Grammar edit | ||
Grognor | v1.12.0Mar 17th 2012 | (+122/-23) | ||
Zack_M_Davis | v1.11.0Nov 17th 2009 | (-21) byline removal | ||
PeerInfinity | v1.10.0Oct 21st 2009 | (+42/-42) | ||
PeerInfinity | v1.9.0Oct 21st 2009 | |||
Zack_M_Davis | v1.8.0Oct 18th 2009 | (+823) rewrite | ||
PeerInfinity | v1.7.0Sep 28th 2009 | |||
Vladimir_Nesov | v1.6.0Sep 25th 2009 | (+17/-17) /* Main post */ | ||
Vladimir_Nesov | v1.5.0Sep 25th 2009 | (+28) /* See also */ |
The availability heuristic judges the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind. Sometimes this heuristic serves us well, but the map is not the territory; the frequency with which concepts occur in your thoughts need not reflect the frequency with which they occur in reality. Undue salience, selective reporting, even subtle features of how the human brain stores and recalls memories can distort our perceptions about the probability of events. Because it's easier to recall words by their first letter, people judge words that begin with the letter r to be more frequent than words with r as their third lettter, even though in fact, the latter is more frequent. Or selective reporting by the media of dramatic tragedies makes them seem more frequent than more threatening albeit mundane risks.
The availability heuristic judges the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind. Sometimes this heuristic serves us well, but the map is not the territory; the frequency with which concepts occur in your thoughts need not reflect the frequency with which they occur in reality. Undue salience, selective reporting, even subtle features of how the human brain stores and recalls memories can distort our perceptions about the probability of events. Because
it'sit is easier to recall words by their first letter, people judge words that begin with the letter r to be more frequent than words with r as their third lettter, even though in fact, the latter is more frequent.OrA second example is that selective reporting by the media of dramatic tragedies makes them seem more frequent than morethreateningthreatening, albeitmundanemundane, risks.