Error of Crowds

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The Errorerror of Crowdscrowds is the idea that under manysome scoring rules, following anthe average error becomes less than the error of the various beliefs will result inaverage, thus making the average belief tautologically worse than a belief less useful than randomly selecting one. of a random person. Compare this to the ideas of modesty argument and wisdom of the crowd.

ReferencesSee also

Overcoming Bias Articles

Blog posts

The Error of Crowds is the idea that under many scoring rules, following an average of the various beliefs will result in a belief less useful than randomly selecting one. A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.