|Ruby||v1.18.0Oct 2nd 2020||(+24/-1)|
|Zack_M_Davis||v1.17.0Nov 16th 2009||(-1)|
|Zack_M_Davis||v1.16.0Nov 16th 2009||(+1/-42) byline removal|
|PeerInfinity||v1.15.0Sep 28th 2009|
|Vladimir_Nesov||v1.14.0Sep 25th 2009||(+45)|
|PeerInfinity||v1.13.0Sep 24th 2009||(+9/-10)|
|Vladimir_Nesov||v1.12.0Jul 17th 2009||(+88/-224)|
|admin||v1.11.0May 4th 2009||11 revisions: migrate_wiki.py script|
|jimrandomh||v1.10.0Apr 15th 2009||(+28/-5) /* Debiasing Techniques */|
|PeerInfinity||v1.9.0Apr 15th 2009|A common cognitive bias resulting in predicting absurdly short timeframes for planned projects, famously observed with, among other projects, the Sydney Opera House, completed ten years late and a hundred million dollars overbudget.
When possible, take the outside view. Avoid estimating the time for a project by adding time estimates for sub-tasks; instead, look for previously
completely projects of similar type and scale, and base the estimate on how long those other projects took. "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." -- Hofstadter's Law , from Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid
The bias also seems to be related to taking an "inside", detail-oriented view of the project to be planned; studies show that the more detailed a plan is, the more
optimisticly inaccurate it is likely to be.