|Swimmer963||v1.3.0Sep 26th 2020||reviewed, tagged posts|
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|steven0461||v1.0.0Jun 28th 2012||(+2238) Created page with "'''Technological forecasting''' means making predictions about future technological advances. Such predictions of the future are intrinsically difficult and susceptible to [http:..."|
One could create probabilistic models more complicated than a simple trend extrapolation. Anders Sandberg has done calculations on timelines for whole brain emulation, based on an analysis of prerequisite technologies. The Uncertain Future is a web application (developed by the
Singularity Institute and currently in beta) that works with probability distributions provided by the user to calculate the probability of a disruption to "business as usual", which could come in the form of either a global disaster or the invention of artificial general intelligence.
Technological forecasting means making predictions about future technological advances.
Such predictions of the future are intrinsically difficult and susceptible to cognitive biases , but we have information that tells us more than nothing.