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AI Timelines

Jan 17, 2021 by Daniel Kokotajlo

This sequence collects my AI timelines-related posts in order from most to least important. If you want to read them all, I'd recommend going in reverse order, since that was the order in which they were written. Originally I was going to tie it all together with a hub post that gives my overall thoughts, but then I changed my mind. Feel free to reach out to me if you want my overall thoughts.

300AI Timelines
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habryka, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ajeya Cotra, Ege Erdil
2y
Ω
136
228Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Ω
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
Ω
86
196Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Ω
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
Ω
86
140Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
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Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
Ω
19
152The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Ω
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
Ω
32
573What 2026 looks like
Ω
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
Ω
163
23How Roodman's GWP model translates to TAI timelines
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
5
123What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?
Q
Daniel Kokotajlo, ChristianKl
4y
Q
86