Don't organic memories typically degrade over time?
Agreed. I do think we are reaching a point that the market will force the Government's hand.
By the way, this is something many other developed nations are facing, to varying degrees. There's been a lack of fiscal conservatism governance for decades. Watching President Milei succeed in Argentina gave us fiscal conservatives some hope that the same would happen in The US and other countries. But I have lost that faith.
The U.S. 30-year Treasury rate has reached 5.13%, a level last seen in October 2023. The last time this rate was at this level was in 2007, when the U.S. federal debt was about $9 trillion. Today, that debt is nearing $37 trillion.
I believe bond market participants are signaling a lack of confidence that the fiscal situation in the United States will improve during President Trump’s second administration. Like many financial professionals, I had high hopes that President Trump’s election would bring the fiscal situation in order. Unfortunately, the "Department of Government Efficiency" has not been as efficient as many had hoped, and U.S. Congress seems completely uninterested in reducing federal spending in a meaningful way.
The tax cut bill currently moving through Congress, fully backed by the White House, will exacerbate the fiscal situation. If this trend of rising long-term Treasury rates continues, the United States will soon face very tough decisions that neither Wall Street nor Main Street is ready to face.
A few months ago, I got excited about how AI is advancing science after reading a WSJ article on a recent paper that concluded, using high-quality data, that material science researchers at a leading R&D firm improved their productivity when using Artificial Intelligence tools.
I was disappointed to learn that the paper, by ex-PhD candidate at MIT Aidan Toner-Rodgers, was entirely fraudulent.
MIT Press Release: https://economics.mit.edu/news/assuring-accurate-research-record
WSJ Article covering the retraction: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mit-says-it-no-longer-stands-behind-students-ai-research-paper-11434092?st=wTbfjh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Substack post with more details: https://thebsdetector.substack.com/p/ai-materials-and-fraud-oh-my
Google revealed yesterday that it has a model capable of original, novel thought in the algorithmic domain. This model has been used inside Google for the past year and only yesterday they've began to invite researchers to try it out.
“While AlphaEvolve is currently being applied across math and computing, its general nature means it can be applied to any problem whose solution can be described as an algorithm, and automatically verified. We believe AlphaEvolve could be transformative across many more areas such as material science, drug discovery, sustainability and wider technological and business applications.”
If you are interested in cutting edge application of frontier Artificial Intelligence models, I urge to read the post below.
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/
Having attended some of the Toronto AI Safety events, I can confirm that the space is legit, the talks are interesting, and the attendees and hosts are serious about advancing AI knowledge, governance, and safety in Toronto.
Congrats on formalizing your organization.
2Today we saw:
The biggest USD / CHF move in history
The biggest USD / EUR move in history
Gold hit all time highs versus the USD
US stocks sell off
US treasuries across the curve sell off
The dollar lose versus all developed currencies.
Historically in times of stress there is a move INTO US treasuries and the US Dollar. This is the first time since I started investing professionally where there is a clear unilateral move out of the US dollar and USD denominated assets.
This past weekend I have read several takes from prominent accounts on social media saying that because long end US treasury rates have dropped and will continue to drop in the near future, businesses will be able to borrow at a lower rate.
These people completely ignore that business borrowing rates are a component of the reference rate + a credit spread. While it is true that the reference rate has dropped in the past few days, credit spreads have materially increased.
For companies with lower credit ratings, it is more expensive to borrow today than it was last week. If the turmoil continues, the cost of borrowing will increase, meaning companies will likely slow or stop projects that require borrowing. This will have immediate negative effects on the economy.
Can you walk me through why you voted Y/Y on Joe Wiesenthal's X poll?
Just 13 days after the world was surprised by Operation Spiderweb, where the Ukrainian military and intelligence forces infiltrated Russia with drones and destroyed a major portion of Russia's long-range air offensive capabilities, last night Israel began a major operation against Iran using similar, novel tactics.
Similar to Operation Spiderweb, Israel infiltrated Iran and placed drones near air defense systems. These drones were activated all at once and disabled the majority of these air defense systems, allowing Israel to embark on a major air offensive without much pushback. This air offensive continues to destroy and disable major military and nuclear sites, as well as eliminating some of the highest ranking military officials in Iran with minor collateral damage.
June 2025 will be remembered as the beginning of a new military era, where military drones operated either autonomously or from very far away are able to neutralize advanced, expensive military systems.