Thank you for this post. You very elegantly laid out a scenario that has been swirling in my head, and I think I updated the probabilities of this scenario as more likely after reading your post.
Your post also strengthen my desire to pivot from finance to policy. I need to figure out how to do this. I find it paramount that more people (both in power and in the general populace) understand the possibility of massive economic disruption.
I look forward to the follow-ups of this post.
Thank you for your post. I've been looking for posts like this all over the internet that get my mind racing about the possibilities of the near future.
I think the AI discussion suffers from definitional problems. I think when most people talk about money not mattering when AGI arrives (myself included), we tend to define AGI as something closer to this:
"one single AI system doing all economic planning."
While your world model makes a lot of sense, I don't think the dystopian scenario you envision would include me in the "capital class". I don't have the wealth, intellect, or connections to find myself rising to that class. My only hope is that the AI system that does all economic planning arrives soon and is aligned to elevate the human race equally and fairly.
One example of what I am talking about is the middle chapters of the book Genesis, where it discusses applications of AI in military and general governance.
I don't necessarily agree with the book's predictions, but it really got me thinking of a near term pre-AGI world.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/19/henry-kissinger-ai-book-released
Someone recommended I create the community, maybe I will in the new year.
Your comment would have more validity had the market not corrected the dislocation created by Theo. It took three weeks, but the market eventually corrected itself.
There are no transaction costs if you have USDC on Polygon. Onboarding USDC into Polygon might bear costs but they are minimal.
I would say very low?
I would also rank the theory that these mystery traders have hidden information as low. As of right now, based on what I have uncovered, I would say that the mystery trader(s) could be one the following (rank in order of what I think more likely to least likely):
1. A wealthy francophone european, somewhat involved in crypto and/or tech, who believes Trump will win and is betting a somewhat trivial amount (to this person) on this outcome. It is key to note that the main account has been trading since June, yet it only started seriously trading these markets after Musk appeared with Trump on stage.
2. A somewhat sophisticated entity that has a proprietary model that has Trump winning as a higher outcome, and believes the odds are mispriced. This entity realized that Polymarket had sufficient liquidity to allow it to bet 8 figures and move the price roughly to what it thinks Trump's real odds are. This entity is likely foreign, and thus it has not been able to trade on Kalshi.
3. An insider of the Trump campaign that is using internal information to make a more informed trade. Perhaps this is someone related to Elon. It could also be someone who understands that since May last year people have been using Polymarket as yet another gauge of how this election might turn up, and by pushing the odds on Poly they are distorting the narrative 18 days before the election.
Hunterbrook just came out with a piece alleging the damage at Spruce Pine is catastrophic:
https://hntrbrk.com/essential-node-in-global-semiconductor-supply-chain-hit-by-hurricane-helene-video-reveals-entrance-to-mine-has-flooded/
I am with you, I have been trying to find more sources to see if semiconductor-grade quartz if being produced in places like Norway and Brazil, where deposits of high purity quartz are found. But from the research I have done, it seems that roughly 90% of semiconductor-grade quartz produced today is produce at Spruce Pine. Please let me know if you find any sources that say the contrary (I hope I am wrong honestly).
With respects to road disruptions, I agree. If it's a matter of national security, stakeholders will do whatever is necessary to ensure the material is transported out. However road disruptions is one part of the equation. There are other scenarios to consider such as power issues and destruction of the refining plants themselves that we have to take into consideration.
I am certainly saying YES to a lot of stuff on the chance that ASI arrives and our lives change completely (Or we all die). Lets say that I am living more in the present now than I was 2 years ago. I do wonder if those closest to the frontier work would realize first and just go do things that really matter to them.
If Mira Murati goes the way of Sam Trabucco, it will be concerning tell.
Yes it does.