ChristianKl

Sequences

Random Attempts at Apllied Rationality
Using Credence Calibration for Everything
NLP and other Self-Improvement
The Grueling Subject
Medical Paradigms

Wiki Contributions

Comments

I think there's a good chance that they also have bigger models but the bigger models are classified. 

I would expect that most actual progress in weaponizing AI would not be openly shared. 

However, the existing documentation should provide some grounding for talking points. Palantir talking about how the system is configured to protect the privacy of the medical data of the soldiers is an interesting view of how they see "safe AI". 

The big websites make more money by selling ads directly than by selling them over a federated system. If you pay the New York Times directly for your ads and the New York Times writes a story that annoys you, you can call the New York Times to complain. On the other hand, if the New York Times wouldn't sell ads directly but instead use some federated ad system, ad buyers couldn't do that.

We currently don't really have bands you have their own homepage where you can listen to the music of the band and the band makes money with selling ads. 

There's Apple News+ that gives you one paid subscription and then allows you to access a bunch of otherwise-paywalled websites. 

I like the dynamic of how the reacts make it easier to give positive feedback. 

When reading the recent UAP betting threat, I feel like I would want to have a react to congratulate people for taking their beliefs seriously enough to bet. 

If you would also have added links, I would have added the "nice, scholarship"-react.

Meta question: If you think there is a 1 in 1000 chance that you are wrong

I don't think that credence is well thought of that way. Attempts to change my mind might change my credence even if they don't change it to me thinking that a natural origin would be the most likely. 

I don't trust Seymour Hersh's anonymous sources more than 70/30, even when The New Yorker publishes his pieces.   

My own beliefs don't rest on a single piece. I don't think that anyone should hold credence that is as high as mine just because they read this article. 

Like, what are the odds that the anonymous sources are members of the intelligence community who are saying it now as part of the [CIA's, NSA's, whatever's] current political strategy relative to China?

Is that's the CIA position they could have just changed the official CIA position and say "We uncovered new evidence and now believe that the lab leak theory is more likely" there would have been no reason to tell a story about how they overruled their own analysts to hide the lab leak theory.  The story as it stands damages the reputation of those agencies and I think "The CIA does what's good for the CIA" is a good heuristic to think about their actions. 

The WIV did not do any work on Coronaviruses under BSL4. They did gain-of-function experiments under BSL2 and BSL3. 

What are some of the real-world consequences to this?

It seems that Fauci and Collins already saw the writing on the wall when the Republicans got the majority in Congress and decided to end their careers. That means they can't be fired for it. 

After misleading the public in the Iraqi WMD case, there was some accounting in the media and an attempt to improve structures to avoid getting lied to by authorities. It's possible that our media institutions aren't completely lost and will do some accounting of why they failed to inform us. 

 only one would involve investigators missing something?

Investigators always miss something and we are likely going to find more information in the future. 

That doesn't change the fact that we have overwhelming evidence.

If you look at the article in Public, it makes the case: We know that the people at the WIV put a Furin cleavage side via gain-of-function modification into a Coronaviruses and we know that they did their research without the safety precautions that you would need and we know that one of the first patients was one of the people working with Coronaviruses at the WIV.

That's already a quite good argument and I can see why it alone isn't enough for 99.9% confidence but we are not limited to it. 

I think the framing of focusing on public servants is one about obscuring responsibility for people on forums like this who went along with the disinformation campaign to suppress the lab leak theory. 

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