Cipolla

Cipolla2moQuick Take

From https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/students/envs_5110/collins_the_golem.pdf, Introduction:

...Both these ideas of science are wrong and dangerous. The personality of science is neither that of a chivalrous knight nor that of a pitiless juggernaut. What, then, is science? Science is a golem.
A golem is a creature of Jewish mythology. It is a humanoid made by man from clay and water, with incantations and spells. It is powerful. It grows a little more powerful every day. It will follow orders, do your work, and protect you from the ever threatening enemy. But it is clumsy and dangerous. Without control, a golem may destroy its masters with its flailing vigour.
The idea of a golem takes on different connotations in different

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Cipolla3moQuick Take

If a machine passes the standard Turing test, this might be enough to take over humans, even if the machine is not aware of this. So, in principle you do not even need super-intelligence.

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Cipolla3mo

I think you wanted to say standard error of the mean.

Cipolla4mo

I had similar thoughts. And indeed I found funny that a forum of rationalists falls for this.

But this is human nature, and we have finite time and energy to focus on things.

You will find the same for the attention papers written by people at famous institutions get, even if low quality.

Making names, recently, I had a similar feeling when looking at "AI as Normal Technology". I did not know the authors, and I was skimming it because someone talked about it.

It is also a reason for which sometimes celebrities are called to do propaganda.

A strategy would be to make make posts anonymous for a limited amount of time (perhaps with some text randomization that would slightly change the style of the author/s, even though this might affect quality).

Replying toGlobal Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobel Laureates, Former Heads of State, and 200+ Prominent Figures

Cipolla5mo

Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobel Laureates, Former Heads of State, and 200+ Prominent Figures

First of all, I appreciate your energy and time, and I am not saying all of this is not useful.

Second, I have a feeling that on this forum there is too much rationality going on, and less talk about random chance, human behavior, and so on.

Said this.

Point one

I am not sure how these surveys were done, but if they were done in a naive way they might be wrong (e.g. election polls are biased if you do not frame well questions).

And even if they were true and many people say they are against AI, they probably use it indirectly, as they are consumers of other services.

My point is that people, pro- and... (read more)

Replying toGlobal Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobel Laureates, Former Heads of State, and 200+ Prominent Figures

Cipolla5mo

Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobel Laureates, Former Heads of State, and 200+ Prominent Figures

Being a Nobel prize, head of state, or holding a prestigious stance in society does not mean you understand what you are talking about. And I do not trust much UN (basically a mafia organization that does lots of signaling work and does not even represent the human population).

Also, these international treaties were not proved to work or to be robust to emergency cases.

If it comes, it need to come from the streets and the homes. If random people tomorrow drop AI, I guarantee you things will change. You need to focus on the basics, with a bottom-up approach.

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Cipolla5moQuick Take

I had a look at "AI as Normal Technology", and some of the other writing of its authors. I thought it was two amateurs, until I checked their backgrounds. Astonishing how AI space is so random.

If you want a serious read check out for example Energy and Civilization: A History, by Vaclav Smil.

Replying toDoes My Appearance Primarily Matter for a Romantic Partner?

Cipolla5mo

Does My Appearance Primarily Matter for a Romantic Partner?

A little bit. But the most important aspects for attraction are the energy and feelings you transmit. I can list so many situations of ugly or poor bad dressed guys dating nice ladies (both at uni and outside).

Also, if you work on your appearance too much you may end up with false positives that waste your time, costing you on the long run; some people focus on status (be partner's looks/money/position/etc...) and if you signal that you might not end up in a nice relationship.

In the long term you need to focus on values, direction in life, and self-confidence. Hitting the gym, having basic grooms is important, but just keep good health... (read more)

Cipolla5moQuick Take

I see no difference between the principles underlying a financial system that builds products to please a few, and a social system that allows anybody to be anything to please a few.

Both serve a relatively small number of people. Both are based on a kind of freedom of expression that puts the individual in the center. One has been proven to be a very unreliable system that has been leading to crises and human suffering. The other one, will just be a matter of time.

There is a proliferation of too much freedom, meaning no freedom.

I think most of the people on LW can not see it. I believe the reason is due... (read more)

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Cipolla1y

Yes, I have tried :) But I still value expert human intuition.

I think at least 50% of the doctors will go away in the future, as they are just trained to give the usual stuff, and if they disappear tomorrow an LLM would still give similar results (actually, even a monkey with just two basic medicines would be a good enough doctor).

Not a proper quick take and perhaps off-topic on this forum. But given that I know some people here are into health I give it a shot.

I would be very grateful if someone could point me to some excellent doctors around Europe, website, or some sort of diet that can be good to improve my health.

I have been having some health issues:

getting sick frequently, feeling feverish most of the time
Difficulty breathing, with some pain sometime when I am also sick
- It turns out I have recently developed asthma too. Initially a couple of doctors thought it was anxiety, and after a year and a half I really pushed to get a proper test.
A

... (read more)

There should be more talk about concentration of power, decoupling from the masses, and social fragmentation around here.

Disruptive technologies amplify the economic inequality gap within countries, and between countries.

New technologies, like automation or farming, quickly benefit a few number of people, basically the owners
- As new technology emerges, the general population will see wage stagnation, job displacements, and will be able to get some benefit from the new technology only after a long time
New disruptive technologies tend to directly benefit fewer and fewer people, while a larger side of the population has less to offer
- While it is true that often new technologies will increase the benefits for everybody, e.g. more food, on the

... (read more)

I noticed the most successful people, in the sense of advancing their career and publishing papers, I meet at work have a certain belief in themselves. What is striking, no matter their age/career stage, it is like they are already taking certain their success and where to go in the future.

I also noticed this is something that people from non-working class backgrounds manage to do.

Second point. They are good at finishing projects and delivering results in time.

I noticed that this was somehow independent from how smart is someone.

While I am very good at single tasks, I have always struggled with long term academic performance. I know it is true for some other people too.

What kind of knowledge/mentality am I missing? Because I feel stuck.

Cipolla's Shortform

Cipolla

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

How do you finish your tasks faster?

Cipolla

I have the following problem: start with a goal that I know how to reach. Everything is there in my mind. But between the start and the finish I stray away from achieving it. It happens like this: I focus on a sub-task. Then, I focus on sub-(sub-task)s. Till I loose my focus.

I would like my process to be: finish the goal. Then, can focus on the sub-tasks and so on.

As now, I tried:

making lists on my laptop. But I then end up creating new lists that do not feature the original goal.
making lists on paper. It works much better. But I loose again the original goal.

If you have some app or method I would really be grateful. I am looking into the GTD system now.

Caring only about your child may increase human suffering

Cipolla

A threat in an individualistic democratic society

On average, if you have the means, you will try to give a good environment to your children.

A nice education, e.g. by making sure they go to non-crappy schools. A chance of doing sports, pursue art or music, coding, and so on. A potential path to explore the world, and develop as individuals.

You do not need money to provide a good environment. For example, you can be economically poor while providing a rich intellectual environment to your children.

But often money has to be brought into the equation. This is because in our society it is usually a key to satisfy basic needs that allow you to... (read 2101 more words →)

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Are unpaid UN internships a good idea?

Cipolla

Disclaimer: I am outside of the world of international organisations. I am a scientific researcher at university. I am writing this post to open a discussion.

Introduction

UN is an international organisation with the following main goals:

maintain international peace and security
develop friendly relations among nations
stand up for human rights
promote better living standards and social progress

Here a more concrete list of examples of what UN wants to achieve. For example, I am all in reducing social inequalities within and across countries.

Working at such an international organisation such as UN can therefore facilitate achieving these goals. To achieve these goals we probably need competent people. As the world is complex you also want a sample of... (read 1141 more words →)

What is going to happen in a case of an AGI era where humans are out of the game?

Cipolla

I am referring to the very specific case where humans, as known to us, no more actively shape the environment surrounding them, due to an AGI take over.

Whatever entity comes after, will it start to explore the galaxy? Will it pursue new or old fundamental questions?

I was wondering if there were some references with first principle arguments that discuss these topics.

Example: imagine our genes using us to wonder around the universe through a better species (for galactic inoculation). Then we would share something with an AGI, no matter how different it is from us.^[1] From this, we might start reducing the number of possible futures.

Understanding the above question would allow me to get some insights into the kind of actions an AGI would potentially take towards humans (to me a less scary scenario of the near future profit-driven technological wild-west interfering with our freedom).

^{^}
I also assume even an AGI can not get rid off the genes, at least not easily. Not sure how to justify this though.

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LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

How do you finish your tasks faster?

Cipolla's Shortform

Are unpaid UN internships a good idea?

What is going to happen in a case of an AGI era where humans are out of the game?

Cipolla

Cipolla's Shortform

How do you finish your tasks faster?

Caring only about your child may increase human suffering

Are unpaid UN internships a good idea?

What is going to happen in a case of an AGI era where humans are out of the game?

Cipolla

How do you finish your tasks faster?

Cipolla's Shortform

Are unpaid UN internships a good idea?

What is going to happen in a case of an AGI era where humans are out of the game?

Cipolla

Cipolla's Shortform

How do you finish your tasks faster?

Caring only about your child may increase human suffering

Are unpaid UN internships a good idea?

What is going to happen in a case of an AGI era where humans are out of the game?

A threat in an individualistic democratic society

Introduction