Top postsTop post
We’re mostly focused on research and writing for our next big scenario, but we’re also continuing to think about AI timelines and takeoff speeds, monitoring the evidence as it comes in, and adjusting our expectations accordingly. We’re tentatively planning on making quarterly updates to our timelines and takeoff forecasts. Since...
AI 2027 laid out a detailed scenario for how AI would progress from 2025 through 2027, including quantitative predictions and qualitative descriptions of the AI landscape. Now that we’re in early 2026, we can grade how its 2025 predictions compare to reality! This is exciting to us because we put...
Some recent news articles discuss updates to our AI timelines since AI 2027, most notably our new timelines and takeoff model, the AI Futures Model (see blog post announcement).[1] While we’re glad to see broader discussion of AI timelines, these articles make substantial errors in their reporting. Please don’t assume...
We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model...
Introduction In June, a Substack/LessWrong/EA Forum user named titotal wrote “A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models”. Our original model that they were critiquing can be found here, with a brief overview below.[1] In a nutshell, we disagree with most of titotal’s criticisms. While they pointed out a...
I originally wrote this just for myself but thought I'd share it in case others find it useful. Sharing rough notes in the spirit of not letting perfect be the enemy of the good. This was written in early May 2025. In this post I collect evidence and forecasts regarding...
At the end of 2024, there was a lot of discussion about whether AI scaling was hitting a wall and whether we would reach AGI soon. We created a forecasting survey that would track key markers of AI progress in what might turn out to be a pivotal year. After...