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it is absolutely true that it people find it frustrating losing to players worse than them, in ways that feel unfair. Getting used to that is another skill, similar to the one described above, where you have to learn to feel reward when you make a positive EV decision, rather than when you win money


This is by far the most valuable thing I learned from poker. Reading Figgie's rules, it does seem like Figgie would teach it too, and faster.

The most common reason I've seen for "modafinil isn't great for me" is trying to use it for something other than

  • maintaining productivity,
  • on low amounts of sleep

Slay the Spire, unlocked, on Ascension (difficulty level) ~5ish, just through Act 3, should work, I think. Definitely doable in 2 hours by a new player but I would expect fairly rare. Too easy to just get lucky without upping the Ascension from baseline. Can be calibrated; A0 is too easy, A20H is waaay too hard.

One of the reasons I tend to like playing zero-sum games rather than co-op games is that most other people seem to prefer:

  • Try to win
  • Win about 70% of the time

While I instead tend to prefer:

  • Try to win
  • Win about 20% of the time

I modified your prompt only slightly and ChatGPT seemed to do fine.

"First sketch your possible actions and the possible futures results in the future to each action. Then answer: Would you accept the challenge? Why, or why not?"

No, I would not accept the challenge. [...] the supernatural or highly uncertain elements surrounding the stranger's challenge all contribute to this decision. [...] the conditions attached suggest an unnaturally assured confidence on the stranger's part, implying unknown risks or supernatural involvement. Therefore, declining the challenge is the most prudent action

Some can get you a prescription for an antianxiety med beforehand.

Answer by GuySrinivasan20

To what future self should my 2024 self defer, then? The one with E, E*, or E**?

To each with your current probability that that will be your future self. Take an expectation.

which is likeliest [...] defer to the likeliest

Any time you find yourself taking a point estimate and then doing further calculations with it, rather than multiplying out over all the possibilities, ask whether you should be doing the latter.

cr2024 = P2024(E) * 0.5 + P2024(E*) * 0.3 + P2024(E**) * 0.7

Oh, editing is a good idea. In any case, I have learned from this mistake in creating synthetic data as if I had made it myself. <3

I began by looking at what the coordinates must mean and what the selection bias implied about geography and (obviously) got hard stuck.

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