D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021: The Duel with Earwax

I am liking this one a lot. There are enough hints, some obvious and others more subtle, that indicate many resonance strengths are simpler than they appear at first. TBD: whether I'm reading too much into the data and seeing more hints than actually exist.

D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021: The Duel with Earwax

Oh! Branch-Loop Analysis is much different than I expected. Good to know.

D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021: The Duel with Earwax

Did we not record which resonance each pilot actually used each time? Usually it's clear

and holistically it's even more clear, but

it'd be nice to have confirmation in those cases where we have all the counterfactual EFS's and I'm pretty sure that data should be available.

Reply to Nate Soares on Dolphins


"please don't shitpost and when you engage with me please avoid all attempts at humor because these pattern-match to ways I am abused and if you do those things even if in good faith it will only hurt our communication, perhaps disastrously, never help" would, I think, cover basically everything you want to cover without also signaling that it will be extremely emotionally draining to engage with you.

OTOH if it will be extremely emotionally draining to engage with you then you have successfully signaled that.

Possibly this isn't fair but I'm pretty sure it's an accurate reading.

Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated?

I also live with an immunocompromised individual who cannot be successfully vaccinated. After research including reasoning very similar to yours, we concluded that if she wore a mask, we felt safe enough with vaccinated folks who had not had any obvious infection opportunities within the past 12 hours to be indoors for substantial periods of time with known-vaccinated folks not wearing a mask. This tracks almost exactly with your guess of "MIGHT be roughly 1.5 days[...] Maybe hours?"

Which rationalists faced significant side-effects from COVID-19 vaccination?

I know about 16 vaccinated people I who I expect would have noticed+told me about easily noticeable >3 days side effects if they had occurred. 0/16 told me. Most mid-30s, two 60s. 40% W, 60% M. 80% basically healthy, 20% with significant health issues. Several groggy/sore/etc for a day, three very much so. Not sure about type distribution, though predominantly Pfizer.

TEAM: a dramatically improved form of therapy

The single most important thing I got from PJ Eby was the "what's good about that?" question.

A.D&D.Sci May 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset

The Jewel Beetle was weird. It was what, like 8% to auto-win everything by winning the Beetle? Except there was just one roll, overall. So in each group of four, one person auto-wins, and then it becomes a cross-group auction where whoever got the Beetle for way less ends up winning. Seems like with very few people participating overall, going for the Beetle caps your odds of winning at 8%, which is not great. With very many people participating, like 100, going for the Beetle caps your odds of winning at the chance there is not a cohort with pure non-beetlers, otherwise whichever of them wins the beetle probably just wins.

A.D&D.Sci May 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset

What I wrote to abstractapplic:

Vague price sense > guessing how others might bid > guarding against someone aiming for significantly higher ROI than you did > exact price sense, I think?

A.D&D.Sci May 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset

Here are the average profits and win rates if we re-ran the sim many times:

A2 sp0.5%[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
B2 sp0.5%[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
C49 sp18.4%[76, 36, 13, 26, 21, 51, 18, 13, 9, 12, 9, 18, 102, 21, 26, 31, 13, 41, 13, 36]
D43 sp7.0%[50, 36, 13, 25, 19, 62, 17, 13, 1, 11, 1, 19, 85, 20, 20, 20, 13, 10, 13, 20]
E52 sp25.6%[73, 34, 15, 21, 17, 57, 16, 15, 6, 11, 6, 15, 8, 17, 28, 31, 15, 42, 15, 34]
F37 sp18.1%[73, 35, 14, 22, 14, 63, 16, 7, 5, 10, 2, 18, 4, 14, 29, 29, 10, 44, 14, 34]
G59 sp20.0%[71, 33, 16, 24, 20, 51, 19, 16, 9, 15, 9, 18, 12, 20, 26, 31, 16, 42, 16, 33]
NPC42 sp9.9%[]

I am bidder E. Whoever bidder G is, they make more profit than I do on average, but I win 25% of the time and they only win 20% of the time.

My method was to interleave two bidding strategies, trying to either spend 300sp at a decent ROI, or spend less on an ROI high enough to beat whoever ended up spending 300sp at a not-quite-as-good-ROI-as-my-original-target.

I am favored to win all heads-up matches, but I never am never favored to win a 4-way with real players. G wins all but one of those, and F wins more 2nd-place finishes in those than I do. So I'm heavily reliant on A/B/NPC being present to make the matchups look more like head-to-head than 4-way.

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